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Jiang Keshen

Hello,

China does have an income tax, although it is not religiously paid by most people, especially those with low incomes (ie almost all people). Foreign workers (me) and high-income Chinese workers are increasingly forced to pay. Also don't be so sure about China rejecting Marx - they cannot leap into the role of global hegemon because they are hamstrung by their own population's size and the sheer amount of inertia it creates. And they too are attempting to enact entitlement programs and this and that to keep people happy. China is on an upswing in historical terms, no question about it, but 'domestic growth and expansion' is easier said than done.

I enjoy these thought-provoking essays.

Cheers,

Michael

Joe_in_Indiana

Very in-depth analysis by Martin Armstrong.

Will take some time to digest.

Thanks for the submission!

Joe

Mista B

It could very well be cognitive dissonance, but I always like what Martin has to say. His knowledge of economic history is unparalleled. It always annoys me when I hear someone say that now is unlike any period in the past. They then offer no justification--but it sure sounds good! In truth, it's simply unlike any period they can recall because they haven't studied history. To them, history goes back to the 70s at most. It's the last bad period for most living Americans. It's especially interesting to see how people reacted before and compare it to how they're acting now.

Personally, I don't think we're tottering on the edge, though it may feel like it. The Western world is clearly indebted. But is it worse--relative to assets--than prior civilizations that cratered shortly thereafter? America is still rich with assets to liquidate. If they were liquidated AND we still couldn't service the remaining debt, then we'd be bankrupt. We're far from there. Once again, people are realizing they can get by on much less. This will not help the economy in the short run, but it will in the long run.

I do think this country is ultimately doomed if it continues down its current path of military domination and social service expansion. It'll eventually eat away all of our savings. Then, most likely, an even greater country will rise. That's been the lesson of history.

Maria dos Santos

Martin Armstrong is one of the most thought provoking individuals in the world today.His analysis will curry no favour,no matter who is in power.Hopefully I can shelter whatever little money I have with his analysis.

Best wishes Martin.

Ferruccio

Chinese icnome tax data http://www.worldwide-tax.com/china/indexchina.asp

cfr

Very interesting thank you for posting

Tommy gladden


Perhaps Margaret Thatcher said it best: "The problem with Socialism is that sooner or later you run out of other peoples money"

Fred Voetsch

Outstanding and thought-provoking article. I would like to see a bit more weight given to the baby-boomer demographic that will also be a large strain on our economy in the coming decades.

ron_paulite


Yes, China has income tax but it is very low relative to Western countries.

You are right about China being held back by the inertia of its huge population.

China is clearly on the upswing now. It probably has another twenty or thirty good years. After that, its problems will come to bear, and China's problems are much much bigger than the USA.

China's problems are ecological and environmental. 1.4 billion people waiting to become middle-class consumers. Sustainability is a problem here. Shortage of natural resources, including clean air and water, is the problem.

Imagine 1.4 billion people all wanting to own a car. Scary.

Thought provoking stuff from Martin Armstrong.
Wish he will be released soon.


" China does have an income tax, although it is not religiously paid by most people, especially those with low incomes (ie almost all people). Foreign workers (me) and high-income Chinese workers are increasingly forced to pay. Michael"

jerry

March 19, 2009, this thursday, minor turning point, (its just time) what do you think will happen ?

marco - italy

Mr. Martin Armstrong, really interesting outlook, only wrong about Marxism. The age opening these years will be the triumph of Marx and Lenin. Their work was not in favour of the State, but in favour of the collapse of the State, thanks to Revolution. The State is the biggest among capitalists, and every marxist knows that communism is the fall of capitalism and the consequent fall of the States, which serve as the superstructures created by capitalists to stick with their interests when free markets fail, and let the proletariat (the working people) to pay the price.
When people, during or after next World War III, will understand that (as during October Revolution in Russia), they'll hang capitalists, destroy the State and 'll edificate the communism, the social and economic system where workers 'll receive the whole product of their work, and exploitment be banned.

A. Magnus

Marx was bankrolled by Wall Street bankers while he was writing his works about communism. Don't think for a minute that those very same characters ultimately stood to benefit the most from the inception of communism. If you still believe in that ideology then you are hideously brainwashed into worshipping those whom would enslave you. Name a SINGLE so-called communist nation that DIDN'T become a corrupt, centralized police state. You can't. That's because communism's sloganeering is just another form of propaganda. In real life it is all about stealing more efficiently the production of the workers it claims to be saving in order to benefit an elite group of rulers - the party.

marco - italy

Dear A.Magnus, you're confusing ideology with science. Several nations in the past thrieved through communist ideology, but were capitalist in facts. Such ideologies (like free-market ideologies) had a key-role in enrolling entire populations to sacrifice and fight against enemy bourgeoises.
URSS, China, and so on, all of them being nations economically based on state-capitalism: salary, banks, money, market, you can find regularly all these characteristics, and this is not communism. Communism, as Marx and Engels teached us, is the social-economic formation that will substitute capitalism, salary, banks, money, and market. Communism is a program for the future, not for the present. Lenin never said that he edificated (...)

marco - italy

Dear A.Magnus, you're confusing ideology with science. Several nations in the past thrieved through communist ideology, but were capitalist in facts. Such ideologies (like free-market ideologies) had a key-role in enrolling entire populations to sacrifice and fight against enemy bourgeoises.
URSS, China, and so on, all of them being nations economically based on state-capitalism: salary, banks, money, market, you can find regularly all these characteristics, and this is not communism. Communism, as Marx and Engels teached us, is the social-economic formation that will substitute capitalism, salary, banks, money, and market. Communism is a program for the future, not for the present. Lenin never said that he edificated (...)

marco - italy

Dear A.Magnus, you're confusing ideology with science. Several nations in the past thrieved through communist ideology, but were capitalist in facts. Such ideologies (like free-market ideologies) had a key-role in enrolling entire populations to sacrifice and fight against enemy bourgeoises.
URSS, China, and so on, all of them being nations economically based on state-capitalism: salary, banks, money, market, you can find regularly all these characteristics, and this is not communism. Communism, as Marx and Engels teached us, is the social-economic formation that will substitute capitalism, salary, banks, money, and market. Communism is a program for the future, not for the present. Lenin never said that he edificated (...)

marco - italy

(...) communism, he said he made the state-capitalism. Stalin said he edificated communism, but Stalin killed all Lenin companions, killed all the communists, and tenth of millions workers. Italian communist Amadeo Bordiga was the first to aknowledge this reality. Communism is not propaganda. It is a science. A science predicting that next years, free-market capitalism and state capitalism, unable to escape the overproduction crisis, the collapse of profit rates and the deflation-inflation monsters, will collapse under major world wars between rising superpowers. Only a coordinated world workers' organization, such Lenin' Third International, could succeed in stopping the massacre, hanging capitalists and creating a new order where classes will be abolished.

Bernard Palmer

"When it goes to extremes as it did in Byzantium, it even destroyed capitalism reducing the average worker into a peasant who was forced to sell himself, his family, and future children into servitude just to survive."

So what we are looking at here is opposites. The worst situation possible is as stated above where the majority actually live in serfdom. I believe the opposite of this has never happened. Nowhere in my search through the history books have I ever found a country or even a province or a small district where every one living there legally owned their own body and that legal right of ownership was protected by actual law or by others through tradition. Even the founding fathers possibly created one of the freest states ever they could not add that right to the Bill of Rights simply because theirs was a slave economy. Though Madison possibly made the 9th Amendment to allow for its later addition.

Unless the right of all people to own their own body and do what they want TO that body is sacrosanct then governments will always inflate and end up terrorizing their people through such blunt instruments as taxation and fiat currencies. Probably only by EVERYONE being legally responsible for themselves can the threat of Marxism/Fascism/Socialism and any other form of Nanny Statism be removed.

This has to start with the individual believing that they own their own body and being prepared to fight to protect that right for themselves and everyone else, even people they don't like. Unless they do that serfdom has an opportunity to return. Slavery in the USA is still used in most prisons and is protected by the 13th Amendment. Remove the second half of that amendment which allows for the creation of slaves and the US could possibly survive otherwise it is doomed to follow every other failed fairy tale state that practised selective slavery and vanish into the ether.

Hard to be believe that one little thing like ownership of your own body should stop governments from becoming malignant.

razzz

The fascination with Red China and its rise to power is interesting being that free thinking is not allowed hence ingenuity is stifled. Without the inclination of free will due to government control and relying on outside initiative to drive ideas and productivity, I don't see how the working class of Red China can inspire itself to new heights.

All Countries consist of hard working people, whether they can attain entrepreneurial status that is unabridged of their governments' control is another matter altogether.

Reminds me of the futility of it all unless the proper rewards of the 'pursuit of happiness' can be guaranteed or the reaping of rewards from one's own goals ends up in the collective's control.

The greatness of the whole of a people should not be assessed by a controlling body or a running in place results.

I'm think'in a glass ceiling with a rising water table, something has to give.

J

Mr. Armstrong,

I would greatly appreciate it if you would please take the time to respond to my email.

Would you please explain if you are anticipating 4/23/09 (or is it 4/19/09)to be:

An inflection point in the bear market, resulting in a rally and a new bull market, or
An acceleration in the current bear market leading to a decline with greater velocity into 6/18/11?

Thank you

l. minsky

A little socialism leavens the whole bread. Nearly every cent of Social Security, AFDC, Food Stamps, Medi-Cal and Medicaid payment money (from taxes) is returned to local economies within thirty days. Small businesss owners, groceries, utilities, energy companies, hospitals, doctors, churches, mechanics, etc., all receive this great recycling of money and our communities survive.

Prop 13, in California, (and like laws other states,) has destroyed
our state's financial base. It disordered our relatively calm functioning. Fortunately, Americans saw beyond the demonization hype of the no-taxation folk and held their second tea party in November, when the Republicans were thrown overboard.

srinivas subban

Well its Nov and dow has'nt gone to 4-5 k. But gold surely has hit new highs to 1050. I have to say Martin at least got the gold prediction right. Reading Martin Armstrong, I always feel I need a phd in economics to get the theories he is pointing out. for the future, I am looking for complex scenario that martin pointed out. Probably commodities going on a bull run till 2011, while equities staying in a range.

Ed Moran

I read this article in late spring 2009. It is a great article and confirmed much of my own research. Over the summer and fall of 2009 I was amazed to read his other articles on Byzantium and Justinian, The knights templars, etc. This all lines up on my long term civilization turning points.

I reproduced portions of martins PI cycle years ago. And have since created my own fractal based on the Law of Octaves. In responce to publishing my western civilization article to a few people last spring one of them forwarded this article to me. This led to my civilizationspeak article. I have decided to release them publicly. Along with a new one I wrote. Here are the links in reverse order.

http://www.classicsoftware.com/signalspace/civilizationsfuture.htm

http://www.classicsoftware.com/signalspace/westerncivilization.htm

http://www.classicsoftware.com/signalspace/civilizationspeak.htm

http://www.classicsoftware.com/signalspace/newcycle.htm

The newcycle is the longest and was written in the fall of 2008. Most everything in it has come to pass though and it is still relavent.

The big western civilization chart can be easily read in light of Martins work.

Ed Moran
Signalspace, Inc.


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To illustrate the difference that capital concentration and capital flows will have on an economy, we need only look at the discount rate at the NY Federal Reserve between 1915-1933.

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I am an African immigrant living in Chicago. I was really trilled when i heard all your benevolence, giving your clothing to charity. What a God blessed heart!!!!
This is my request: My brother is expecting a set of fraternal twin in Africa, can you please donate your twin used clothing to me so i send them to him?
God bless you as you continue you life.

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As a teenager, Armstrong worked at a rare stamp and coin dealership and became a millionaire at age 15. Then he opened his own store at age 21. After studying historical gold prices, he developed a cyclical theory of commodity prices and began a company, Economic Consultants of Princeton.

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