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Russ

You obviously think that Don Wolanchuk's argument for entering the epicenter of primary wave 3 of the world-wide capitalist expansion after the collapse of communism is not on.

Isn't it possible that the Asian expansion boom will drag the USA along for the ride to some degree?

Regnum

dachief can't be taken seriously. The epicenter babble is good for a chuckle but not much else.

As for the Asian expansion boom, it was built on exports funded by American debt. That's gone bye-bye now because the debt's gone toxic. What you will witness in the next few years is devolution on a global scale. I'm thinking base subsistence for 99% of the world's population as the reversion to the mean takes hold.

This time, it really is TEOTWAWKI but no one will believe it all the way to the bone-jarring, bowel-shaking, teeth-gnashing, fingernail-screeching bottom. By the time it's all over, a cardboard box with a hot plate will be considered luxurious living accommodations.

Russ

Regnum wrote: "dachief can't be taken seriously. The epicenter babble is good for a chuckle but not much else.

As for the Asian expansion boom, it was built on exports funded by American debt. That's gone bye-bye now because the debt's gone toxic."

Maybe it't true, the USA...modern Rome if imploding will drag down the outer provinces with it. However lets not forget about James Dines (who once sat beside Martin at an Outlook Conference in Vancouver - oh the glory days when Marty was King and could dine at the Bayshore INN etc.)

Dines said in the late 1970's that the 21st Century would belong to China and that eventually it would be the largest economy in the world. Martin said back in the early 1990's to me that China would be the strongest at first but eventually a greater Europe including Russia and the East Block would become the biggest. To me it looks like China will be the biggest as I originally said long ago. In Marco Polo's time China was the wealthiest nation on Earth so they will just be reclaiming their former glory. For example look the the Build Your Dreams automobile company in China, they started out building batteries in the late 1990's and have quickly moved to building cars equivalent to Honda's and Toyotas in recent years, the international automotive industry world-wide has been shocked at how fast they have ramped it all up.

Chinese love money and materialism and work like hell, they also have good balance sheets as far as I know. So I wouldn't write them off too easily but it would be good to see some serious number crunching on them. Playing the devil's advocate here along with Mr. Wolanchuk who privately told me that he was wrong about Martin Armstrong (in that he used to mock him) but recently he went back to mocking him which I found to be pretty unfair and inconsistant with his previous about turn.

BTW... I have documented on the blog I run to help Martin that I believe there is evidence that both Google and Wikipedia have been manipulated as to what is reported on the internet about Martin. see it on http://princetoneconomics.blogspot.com/ Personally I think Marty should resurrect Princeton Economics when he gets out and give the powers that be the finger.

Socrates

From Martins chart, I thought we make a high ( bear mkt rally high) by April 19, 2009 and then drop into June/July 2009. Basically should be a down year then up in 2010 then down till June 13, 2011.

If 3,500 reached on the Dow Futures (I'm looking firs for 5,500 after April 19)in 2009 or 1st quarter 2010, do we test these lows by June 13, 2011??

I cannot see a Bull market taking place till 2015/2016 in the stock market.

Japan went sideways and down for 18/19 years 1989 to 2008

From 1900 the the market went down and sidewasy for 21 years, then 8 years, then down and flat for 17 years (30-46), then up for 20 years(46-66), then sideways/down/sideways (66-82), then up from 82-2000 that is 18 years and now its been 8 years of sideways and down market. So do we have 8 or 10 more years to go before another bull market comes along???

deuxsous

If Martin would tell the FBI where he hid the money from his Japanese bond scam, he would be out of prison before the bear market ends.

Hopefully people see the Madoff aspect of Martin's career of posing as a financial wizard. He and Madoff may have some jolly times talking about the imbeciles they scammed and those who still believe them when they get to be cell mates. ;)

Russ

If Martin stole money from the Japanese the as he says...'how is it that there was not one wire transfer of investor's money into my personal accounts.' (paraphrased)

Lets stop the libel and bs, the powers that be decided to get him because he is a threat.

deuxsous

Martin had accounts all over the world, by all reports, not just in Republic Bank in New York. Where did all that money go? That's all the courts asked him to document. He refused to do so and still does.

What threat is or was he to anyone except Japanese bond investors?

Twocents

I took one of Martin's courses in the early 1980's, so I know his work very well. He was a great performer who spoke and wrote well.

His "economic model" came from Samuel Benner's work after the 1873 market crash. Do you remember the famous yellowed chart found in a desk drawer in Philadephia which Martin referred to many times? I have a copy of it from the PEI site and from the NYTimes. It was obviously a Benner chart. Benner charts were well known since Prechter's first edition of Elliott in the late 1970's, and there is no WAY that Martin could not have seen Prechter's book when he was describing the "model" in the 1980's.

For Martin to feature that chart and then claim he discovered the "model" via Pi was when I began to realize his claims were "exaggerated", ***in my opinion***. I knew some of Benner's descendents who showed me his orginal charts, and I have a reprint of Benner's early book edition.

There are real martyrs in our time, or innocents who are persecuted for something they didn't do. Regretably that happens. It bothers me that Martin's family has had to bear the pain of his imprisonment. It's terrible that anyone should waste his life in a cell. But I truly believe that he has done it to himself.

He should have produced the basic information the court requested. There may be credible reasons why he did not, such as fear of retribution as a squealer on someone else in the bond scam or cover-up, but look what he has done to himself and to his family, presumably. It's obviously a very complicated case of human behavior. No one ever mentions any of his many associates at PEI in NJ or abroad or their opinions now or anything about them or him. Why is this?

I can understand why people want some satisfaction or completion of this seemingly horrid story. It makes no sense in normal terms. There is something in this story that is deep in Martin's heart and in the minds of others of his knowledge that has sealed him up.

Russ

Benner's chart is quite different than the Economic Confidence Model, Benner's does not give turn points down to an exact day as the ECM does. We just saw the financial indices, housing index and Japanese Nikkei peak on the last pi cycle in early 2007, which showed where capital was concentrating, how much more evidence do you want of the validity of Martin's model???

It seems like you are jealous of Martin's discovery for some bizzare reason.

I have also seen the old yellowed chart you refer to, but I don't think it is a Benner chart.

Russ

"What threat is or was he to anyone except Japanese bond investors?"

According to Martin he was warning his subscribers about what market the 'billionaire's club' on wall st. was going to manipulate next. He says he was asked to join this group but refused. So they decided to get him, to shut him down, rather than continue to have to compete against a guy with a superior forcasting system to what they had/have.

Journalist Michael Campbell of radio station www.cknw.com , who runs Canada's #1 Rated financial show across Canada said of Mr. Armstrong ... "Armstrong is different than other Economists, he is usually right." Campbell worked for Equity Magazine about twenty years ago and they named Martin Armstrong ... North America's Top Economist.

So yeah...duh... a guy like this with a 32,000 variable super computer model is a threat to the powers that be on wall street.

Now the banksters are getting taxpayer dollars big time, it was not enough for them to have usurious levels of interest rates to suck from the American worker for the past 3 decades!

Russ

HSBC which took over Republic Bank paid all the Japanese investors back every dollar they had in their accounts. It has all been set right.

Russ

"He should have produced the basic information the court requested."

According to Martin's daughter Vicky Armstrong,one of the main reason her father remains in prison if because he refused to turn over the source code for his computer model, which he says cost 60 million dollars to build. The CIA wanted his model as was written about by Princeton Economics employee James Smith and Martin refused to let them have it. So why should he have let the government or court have the model for free. Why should the government have the right to have a proprietary piece of intellectual property at all??? Do they have the right to take Microsoft's code from them? Is there rule of law in the USA for intellectual property or not?

RWA

Talk of China leading the world economically is the most over hyped story since the Soviet Union used to claim technological superiority over the USA. That was joke and so is the China hype. (Sorry Jim Rogers et al)

In reality, China manufactures crap and cheap crap at that. Unfortunately for the Chinese economy, the US consumers are putting a lid on the crap buying and becoming frugal Fannies and saving their hard earned dollars. What a novel concept.

China has a huge population and equating that huge population to economic power and strength is a misconception. If in fact the world is entering a depression then that huge population will become China’s Achilles heel.

Food, water and healthcare will become what are most important. Not cheap crap made by China and sold at Wal-Mart.

jhu32

Its important to note that the japanese corporations were the ones trying to hide losses, the laws in japan were changing so that losses that corporations had on their books were going to have to be realized or market to market rather than market to what their original investment was. Because of this martin armstrong, lehman brothers, and others were giving japanese corporations "repair bonds" with a maturity at some point in the future that brought their portfolios back to the price they paid for it, doing this allowed the japanese corporations to keep the original mark on their investment and not have to write anything down. So the majority of the losses were from the original investments, it seems the US did not understand this. The "victims" (japanese corporations) struck gold when this thing happened, hsbc paid them off any losses that martin might have had AND more importantly all the original losses that the "victims" had created for years of investments gone wrong

broghmn

Well, the daughter seems to hint at it. Perhaps faaar more going on here. The rule of law under a fiat(irredemable)currency is a myth, intellectual property being part 'n parcel. Russ above starts to touch it - however, it may not be that he has a forecast system better than theirs, it may be that he 'stumbled' upon a system in which they already have deep knowledge. I imagine the 400yr old banking families who own our Fed. have parsed the ins-outs of using paper iou's to perpetrate continual falling interest rates, siphoning off capital from the real economy while attempting to corner the only real money.

Fun quotes:
"Gold Is Money, and Nothing Else." - JP Morgan, testifying under oath to Congress before the Pujo Commission, 1913

“But if you wish to remain slaves of bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, let them create money.” - Joshua Stamp, Director, Bank of England, 1928

mitch

Can someone explain to me why the relative dates of highs and lows in various markets in the "what now" section do not relate to the basic confidence model that has been around for years? The basic model has a high in april 2009 and then a major low in 2011.

Russ

Mitch, The extreme oscillations have been highs and lows since the creation of the model, the inner or smaller oscillations can be highs or lows. My own work is predicting that April 23,2009 -
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/ - will be a low which is contrary to what Martin wrote in late 2008.

For example the 1987 turn showed the low in the 1987 crash to the day but it was a high oscillation on Martin's model diagram.

http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger/5682/3176/1600/270830/8.6%20Cycle%20gif%20-%202020..jpg

mitch

Russ, I still don't get it, Oct 1987 was a high in the model and a high in the market not to be exceeded until summer of 1989? All the times I listened to Martin before he went away he never had inverted signals (like a bradley indicator)they were always highs and lows but just in different markets or segments of the economy. Now in his latest writing above he gives a bunch of potential highs and lows in the different markets over the next three years, unrelated to his model, and the info seems untradeable.

jerry

march 19th 2009, this thursday is a minor turning point,(it's about time)

what do you think will happen?

Ignacio E. Talon

I have followed Martin Armstrong's work since his days at the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, 20 years. I have also been aware of the March 19, 2009 date. The events of yesterday came completely out of the blue. Gold was down $22+ and then at 2:00 N.Y. time we went up to a +$30, remarkable. We will see how today unfolds.His legal status, I am not sure of, other than the nature of his being jailed and the c.i.a. connection; but his work is very interesting. A fractal view provides more keys to his insights.

Darren

March 19th turning date could it end up being a high for gold? Everyone seams so bullish gold. March 20th is the spring equinox & often will reverse a trend. Iam uncertain regarding gold having put in a low or a high.

It is also possible in the Dow that March 10th was a start of a huge rally to all time highs. Everyones seams to be bearish stocks.
The crash of 1987 was a wave 2 decline.
The rally into the 2000 top from the 1987 low was wave 3
The decline into the 2002 low was wave A of 4
The rally into 2007 was wave B of 4
The decline from the 2007 high to the low of March of 2008 was wave C of 4
Wave 5 up most likely has started

Darren

Is the date March 19th 2009 or April 19th 2009. When I do the math (2009.3) I get close to April 19th 2009 (365 x .3 = 109.5 days from the start of 2009)

Bernard Palmer

Martin Armstrong,
Did anything happen on 19th April that is obviously connected to your wave theory?

al

Someone needs to start a Free Martin armstrong facebook group, get exposure to his case and gain support.

findcj

Dollar hit a high on 4/19/2009

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