Understand How The Market Really Works

I have probably read close to every single article that Jim Cramer has written since he started thestreet.com.  At best, I think he's a mediocre trader and probably a slightly worse investor.  I know Jim would take issue with that notion, given his performance at his hedge fund over the 1990s ("24% compounded from 1989 to 2001", we know, we know) but my father - who only understands the basics of investing - outperformed him by holding and buying only one stock during the decade - GE (my father worked for GE and it was his primary investment - it compounded at about 28% over the 1990s).  Forget the incessant "trading around positions", finding the hot sector, hedging with options, gaming the Fed, etc, etc.  Most individual investors should find a couple of high quality companies trading at a discounted valuation and buy.  Then they should hold them until they trade at a premium valuation. Sell and repeat. My father sold his GE "when it got too expensive" in 2000.  I would say that's genius.  The way Jim Cramer trades is controlled insanity - it's not genius.   

That said I think Jim Cramer the absolute best at gaming the system - Jim understands better than anyone how the market works and he's the best at making money from the market's machinations.  I would garner that most mutual fund portfolio managers, stock analysts and reporters don't have a clue how the market actually works.  That's why every professional investor should be required to read every article written by Cramer at thestreet.com, especially the ones from 1997 - 2001.  If you really want to learn why stocks go up or down, go to thestreet.com and search for his articles from those years.  Print them off and read them.  Then read them again.   

If you don't have time to do that, watch this Cramer video from the end of 2006.  It gives you a great introductory insight into how hedge funds play with the market.  It's why the market confuses most people.  You don't have to do what Cramer does to beat the market, but you do have to understand it.  For example, as a long-term investor, I use these silly hedge fund games to my advantage.  I buy when hedge funds are trying to knock stocks down and I sell when hedge funds are trying to prop stocks up.  That's why, even if you're not a hedge fund manager, it's a good idea to know why stocks do things you don't expect.   

This video is Jim Cramer at his very best - being brutally honest and giving you an insight into the inner workings of the stock market.  This is Cramer's genius and it's why I still read everything that Cramer writes. 

Watch the video. 

Comments

[Yaser Anwar]

I've been a long-time subscriber of your feedblitz market posts but unfortunately have to say that this post shows your clear lack of understanding.

Comparing individual investors vs. hedge funds (good and bad) is completely RIDICULOUS. Why? They have 100s of millions to manage, whereas the MOST an individual investor/trader will trade and invest is 4-5ish million, that too a big IF, as most with that kind of money are private clients.

It is A LOT easier for individual investors to outperform the market, if they don't...they should hand their dough to some one who does know how to manage. Like your father, my dad too has generated very solid returns by holding and investing through DRIP plans, they don't have to battle the pressures of HFs and BB traders.

There are 100s of factors at play for the HF guys, the most important one is constant scrutiny from LPs and investors, no matter how good there track record, they are remember for their fuck ups.

So the premise of your article is flawed and you project the wrong image, I guess you've never worked for a top 5 bulge bracket/buy-side firm. I say this not disrespectfully or to mock you, but if you did you would know what I mean.

I've got a couple of friends who were professional traders at top firms and HFs, left after they made a couple of millions to trade on their own. They found it a lot easier to double, triple that money given the lack of pressures and difficulties at a HF/BB firm.

[Contrahour]

Thanks for the comment, Yaser. I fully agree with your points on running a HF vs being an individual investor. Our firm runs a hedge fund and I understand the problems that LPs and other regulatory issues create.

I wasn't clear in my original article. It was meant to be more a comment on Jim Cramer's video (which he's gotten some criticism over) than comparing hedge fund returns to individual investors. I was kind of taking a cheap shot at Cramer because he constantly mentions his funds compounded return every chance he gets. Yes, his returns are impressive but, really, if you didn't make 20% compounded in the 1990s, you were asleep at the switch.

I was also commenting on Cramer's frenetic trading style, which I think is just silly. I'm a subscriber to Cramer's Action Alert Plus service and his performance just isn't that exceptional given that he sends you a trade three or four times a week. He should be killing the market because he is trading so often and only managing $3 million but he's not - he's barely keeping ahead of it - and once you consider taxes, he's way behind. The Action Alert Plus product should be his chance to shine and quite frankly, we have outperformed him in our relatively conservative long-term equity strategies in which we hold stocks for 3 years. That's why I say he's not that great a trader or investor - I haven't seen any signs that he can consistently beat the market.

My real point in the post was that Jim Cramer is a genius...just not in the sense that most people think. What he's done to illuminate the market's inner workings is a huge benefit to all investors. To scold him for being honest and insightful, as some people have done, is just stupid. I have learned more from Cramer's articles and books than I have from any other source, even Warren Buffett's yearly letters. That said, I don't trade or invest at all like he does. But I use what he has taught me every day - just applied to my own trading style.

[Babak]

I for one think you give Cramer way too much credit :o)
Poor guy can't trade his way out of a wet paper bag - what about the HF performance? Gimme a break! It was Todd-o and Berkowitz and the Trading Goddess (she saved him from himself so many times it's just not funny - like in '87 when he wanted to go long and she short just before the crash)
Cramer a genius? LoL

[Michael Herdegen]

Hey - just wanted to compliment you on your site. I came for the Martin Armstrong graph, but read a few other articles, and I'll be back.

[Jingoistic]

Cramer has secured his place in the market as a trader and opinion maker but he's a television clown now.

I have read his Street.com articles as well and his insight into how traders will shoot at other traders' positions remains one of the better articles if anyone wants to read how hedgefunds compete. Don't have the exact link but the Street.com should have an archive of his ramblings.

Cramer isn't a genius. The guys who developed the Black-Scholes model were geniuses and won a Nobel Prize for their work. Slapping the "genius" label on Cramer is an insult to actual geniuses everyone and Contrahour is loosey-goosey with the term.

[Anon]

In his book "Confessions of a Street Addict," Cramer admits he was toast in the 1998 crisis. It was his wife, the Trading Goddess, who at the lows of that period, bought a ton of tech (while they were on vacation!) and pulled his ass out of the fire.

Cramer was out touting the big cap techs right up until March 2000 (QERKY or some acronym) -- his wife and his head Trader, unbenowst to him, blew out of everything while he was still touting "Its different this time." Again, they saved Cramer from himself.

Remove those trades, and he's just another mediocre performer with dubious legality, manipulating the media for fun and profit.

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[MrEd]

I believe Jim Cramer is a very bright guy. There is no doubt he is smart. That said, he is not great at anything in the market including commentary. I am very dubious of some of his claims. Some extremely large money managers may be able to create pet stocks but Cramer's comments are more bullshit than anything. So many investments are too liquid to be impacted regularly and repeatedly by a single player. The fact that a mutual fund manager pushes down RIMM as an example, with "play" money amounting to tens of millions of dollars on a daily basis when there is alot of liquidity on the other side of the trade is pure horseshit.